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Asbury Park Fire Department
Wednesday September 30th, 2015 :: 10:54 a.m. EDT

Advisory

NOR'EASTER LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY THREAT FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN SUNDAY/MONDAY

SEPTEMBER 30, 2015

NOR'EASTER LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN ALL EYES ON HURRICANE JOAQUIN AS IT MAKES IT WAY NORTHWARD OFF THE US SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE

Heavy rain and wind for a prolonged period friday through the weekend. Tropical Storm Joaquin being watched for possible effects on our area. More info at: http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/forecast

Please monitor your local weather channel for updated and or additional information. Please take precautions when traveling. If you reside in an area within the city that normally floods (i.e., Wesley Lake/Deal Lake, Bangs/Ridge Area), you are reminded to take precautions such as relocating your vehicle to a safe location. This is only an advisory message.


THE FOLLOWING IS NARRATIVE FROM OUR FRIENDS AT TRI-STATE STORM WATCH

A sharp cold front will pass through the area this afternoon and evening with periods of heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms. Much cooler air arrives behind the front tonight. An area of high pressure will position itself to our north as the cold front stalls over the nearby coastal waters. An area of low pressure will move northward along the front bringing the threat of rain on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. The tightening pressure gradient will result in increasing northeast winds with gusts to 40 mph both Friday and Saturday. Total rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible for the period from Thursday to Saturday.

At the same time Hurricane Joaquin will be impacting the Bahamas. All of the model guidance, with the exception of the European, keep Joaquin in the central Bahamas until Friday/Friday night, then start to move him northward over the weekend followed by a bend northwestward with landfall right around the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. The modeled strength of Joaquin at landfall varies…the hurricane model guidance have it as a Cat 2/3 and the global models show a minimal hurricane.

The key to the forecast is when (and if) Joaquin is captured by an upper low over the southeast states.

The European Operational keeps Joaquin in the Bahamas for another 36 hours which then allows it to escape northeast Sunday and Monday. However, the Euro ensemble members are well west of the operational and more in line with the other guidance. This makes the Euro Op a clear outlier, and as much as it is superior guidance, having its own ensembles in disagreement makes me believe the majority of guidance which indicates a mid-Atlantic hit is likely to be correct

My best guess is that Joaquin makes it to Cat 3 status either tonight or tomorrow, moves north and then bends back to the coast with landfall between North Carolina and the Chesapeake Bay area on Sunday or Sunday night as a 80 mph to 95 mph hurricane.

The persistent east winds from Thursday thru Saturday will gradually build above normal tides for three days followed by the hurricane threat. Rain and wind will further increase as Joaquin approaches the coast to our south on Sunday. Minor coastal flooding is likely on Thursday and Friday followed by moderate coastal flooding by Saturday. The degree of coastal flooding on Sunday/Sunday night in association with Joaquin will depend on the exact track of the hurricane. The coastal flood threat is no where near what was experienced with Sandy but it certainly could approach or match some significant coastal flooding events of the past.

Address/Location
Asbury Park Fire Department
800 Main St
Asbury Park, NJ 07712

Contact
Emergency: 9-1-1
Non-emergencies: 732-775-6300

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