Full Notification

National Weather Service Information:  
Severe thunderstorms will be possible across North and Central Texas late this afternoon and evening.  Not everyone will see storms today, but everyone in North and Central Texas should be prepared for this severe-weather potential.
 
Overview
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a weak southward moving frontal boundary late this afternoon and evening.  This boundary should extend from the Paris area southwestward into the Metroplex and farther west toward Stephenville by 5 pm.  After this morning thunderstorms, we should have ample time to destabilize through the afternoon. Very strong instability will be present by late afternoon and would support thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds.  There will be a tornado threat primarily in the vicinity of any boundaries. Thunderstorms are expected to develop between 4-6 pm along the Red River and should expand southwest along the boundary through 9 pm. These storms will likely organize into a cluster and move southeast through the late evening hours.  Along with the threat for severe weather, there will be a threat for flash flooding with any storms that persist in any one area.
 
What We Are Certain Of:
 

• A very unstable air mass supportive of strong/severe storms will be in place this afternoon into tonight.
• The strongest storms during this time will be capable of damaging winds, hail, and localized flooding.

 
What We Are Less Certain Of:
 

• The timing and exact location when storms develop. The Red River area from Gainesville to Paris seems to be the most likely area for initial storm development.

Storm coverage is uncertain. Cells may be more isolated than scattered. However, storm outflow boundary collisions and other interactions could help new storms develop quickly, increasing  coverage through the evening.