Full Notification

Hurricane Michael will weaken to a Tropical Storm as it tracks northeast through the Southeastern US tonight into Thursday, before tracking off the Mid Atlantic coast and southeast of Long Island on Friday as a Post-Tropical storm. For additional details on Hurricane Michael, please visit https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

Michael is still expected to stay far enough offshore to keep direct wind and rain impacts to the south of the Tri-State region, but an approaching frontal system will tap into an increasingly moist and unstable air mass to bring heavy showers and a few thunderstorms to the region Thursday into Thursday evening. In the wake of the cold front, gusty NW winds are expected late Thursday Night into Friday.

What has Changed?
• With increasing confidence in heavy rainfall and potential for flash flooding a Flash Flood Watch has been issued, which is in effect from midday Thursday through Thursday Night.
• A Gale Watch is in effect for the ocean waters for Friday Morning.
Potential Hazards and Impacts:
Flash Flooding: ***A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT***
• A basin average rainfall of 1 1/4 to 2 1/4 inches is expected Thursday into Thursday Evening, with localized swaths of 3 to 5 inches of rainfall possible.
• Rainfall rates of 2 inches/hr are expected with any heavy showers or thunderstorms.
• Grounds are still saturated and river and stream flows are running above normal, bringing potential for widespread urban and poor drainage flash flooding, as well as flooding along quick responding small rivers, streams and creeks Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

The graphic below depicts the expected basin average rainfall, mainly falling Thursday into Thursday Night...

Thunderstorms:
• There is potential for scattered thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the approaching cold front Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
• A few of these storms could produce strong to damaging winds Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
Winds:
• Northwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely on Friday.
• With saturated soils and full tree foliage, this may result in isolated downed trees and tree branches, with isolated power outages.
Coastal flooding:
• Minor coastal flooding (inundation of 1 ft or less) is expected with the Thursday morning/early afternoon high tidal cycle, primarily along the most vulnerable coastal locales of the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens counties, and coastal Westchester, Fairfield, and New Haven counties. Any heavy rain coinciding with the times of high tide will exacerbate urban and poor drainage flooding in coastal areas.
• Additionally, 5 to 10 ft surf is expected along the ocean shoreline by Friday morning, which could cause some beach flooding and erosion during the time of high tide. Impacts to the dunes are expected to be isolated and minimal.