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A warm, humid start to Tuesday could bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening for New Jersey.

The northern part of the state is at the greatest risk for heavy rain and damaging winds beginning at around 4 p.m., the National Weather Service said this morning.

Minor flooding could take place in areas with poor drainage and there's also minor chance of flash flooding in Essex, Union, Hudson, Bergen and Passaic counties, the weather service says.

An isolated tornado also can't be ruled out in the five northeastern counties. Somerset, Hunterdon, Warren, Morris and Sussex could also get walloped with severe thunderstorms.

AccuWeather.com is not as bullish on heavy rain, instead describing Tuesday's weather as "unsettled." It adds that "wet weather will hold off until the late afternoon and nighttime hours along the I-95 corridor."

Forecasters expect showers and thunderstorms to wind down after midnight as temperatures dip into the 60s.

Highs on Tuesday should reach 80 in Newark, 82 in Camden and 77 in Seaside Heights. There will be periods of sunshine before skies darken.

Once the rain is gone, several days of warm, dry conditions await New Jersey. Wednesday and Thursday are likely be sunny with highs in the low 80s across most of the state. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and low 60s.

It stays sunny Friday but temps will only reach about 70. Early indications are that dry, mild conditions will stick around for the weekend.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Leslie is still swirling in the Atlantic Ocean with maximum winds of 65 mph. It's about 540 miles east of Bermuda moving southwest at 7 mph but is no threat to land other than the rough surf it's causing.

The storm is expected to turn to the north late Wednesday, by which time it will have strengthened into a hurricane. Leslie will then begin veering north-northeast on Friday, further from land.