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Message from the Santa Barbara County Office of Emergency Management: Updated Weather Advisory

The National Weather Service is now indicating that the storm that was predicted for Tuesday has weakened and will now arrive on Wednesday. No evacuations from this storm are necessary. The Santa Barbara County Office of Emergency Management and cooperating emergency response agencies will continue to monitor the weather system for changes and will alert the public if the storm becomes a threat for debris flows. Unless the situation changes, no further updates will be issued for this storm. Below is the Spot Weather Forecast:

Spot Forecast for SBA South Coast Precipitation Forecast...SBA County OEM

National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA

137 PM PDT Mon Oct 1 2018

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 PDT on October 02. 

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather

Service.

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure west of California will approach the 

southwest coast late Tuesday, then move overhead on Wednesday. This 

system will continue to weaken as it moves toward land with the 

heaviest precipitation remaining over the ocean Tuesday afternoon and

night. Rain is likely to move onshore on Wednesday with most areas

receiving light to briefly moderate rainfall through Wednesday

evening. Rainfall totals for the Thomas Fire area through Wednesday 

is 0.25-0.40 inch for coastal areas and 0.40-0.75 inch for the 

foothills and mountains of the Santa Ynez Range. There is a slight 

chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, but the risk of rain 

rates exceeding 0.50 inch/hour is extremely low at this time. [USGS

thresholds this season begin at 0.80 inch/hour]. 

There is still uncertainty with timing and rainfall amounts with

this first rain system of the season. Most importantly we will have a

better idea on rain rates on Tuesday when high resolution models

capture this event. 

Overall the main impacts in Santa Barbara County will be minimal 

with just the typical slick roadways and clogged drains that can 

create traffic issues. 

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Increasing clouds. 

Max temperature.....70-74. 

Wind (20 ft)........ 

 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph early then 

                                                                            becoming southwest 8 to 15 mph with gusts

                                                                            to 20 mph. 

Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. 60 percent chance of rain 

                                                                            showers well after midnight. 

Min temperature.....Around 56-60. 

Wind (20 ft)........ 

 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. 

Pcpn amount.........0.15-0.25 inches. 

Rainfall intensity..up to 0.15 inch/hour.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Rain showers likely (70 percent chance) 

                                                                            through the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms 

                                                                            in the afternoon. 

Max temperature.....66-70. 

Wind (20 ft)........ 

 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Locally gusty winds to 

                                                                            20 mph in the afternoon and near any thunderstorms.  

Pcpn amount.........0.25-0.50 inches. 

Rainfall intensity..up to 0.33 inch/hour. Possibly 0.50 inch/hour in 

                                                                            thunderstorms.