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Manchaca Fire Rescue
Saturday November 22nd, 2014 :: 01:30 p.m. CST

Alert

Flash Flood Warning until 4:15P CST - check www.atxfloods.com for road/low water crossing closures. Turn around, dont drown!

South-Central Texas Partners...

...HEADLINE...

...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible across South-Central Texas This Afternoon and evening....Locally Heavy Rain Possible through the day...

...AREA OF CONCERN...

All of South-Central Texas

...IMPACTS...
• Strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
• Isolated Tornadoes with a few Supercells possible.
• Rainfall totals 1-3 inches, isolated 5 inches possible. Rain Rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour in heavier storms.
• Mainly minor urban flooding possible. Higher totals may cause isolated flash flooding concerns.
...TIMING...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning mainly across the eastern half of South Central Texas. Thunderstorms will become more widespread during the day. Main impact time of this system will be from Noon to 6 PM across the western areas....Noon to 11 PM over the eastern areas. So as the storm system pushes east, rain/storm chances will end over the Hill Country by evening, but linger over the far eastern areas through early tonight.

...CONFIDENCE...

Moderate to High.

...DISCUSSION...

An approaching upper level storm system will interact with increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across South Central Texas today. The chance for rainfall and strong to severe storms will be greatest during Saturday afternoon and evening as forcing from an upper level disturbance moves across the region. We are already seeing thunderstorm development over West Texas associated with the main lift from this system. Severe storms, some of which may be supercells, may produce large damaging hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes. All of South Central Texas is under a Slight risk of severe weather. Weather watches and warnings may be issued later today. We have increased the expected rainfall just a bit, average 1-3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Already some spots near the I-35 corridor picked up near 1.5 inches overnight. Be Prepared.

While it is rare to have severe weather in November, South Central Texas has seen its share of late Fall severe weather outbreaks. How significant this event becomes will be partly determined by how much sunshine we get today. If it stays cloudy and rain cooled, the threat for severe weather will go down and it will be more of a rain problem. If temperatures warm due to a good amount of early sunshine, storms will be bigger and stronger in the afternoon leading to a better severe weather chance.

This will be the last update on this system unless significant changes occur.

You can see the latest forecasts and watches/warnings/advisories by going to the Austin-San Antonio National Weather Service website at www.weather.gov/austin

Instructions:

Turn around, dont drown!

Address/Location
Manchaca Fire Rescue
665 W FM 1626 Rd
Austin, TX 78748

Contact
Emergency: 9-1-1
Non-emergencies: 512-282-7057

Alert Details

Severity:
Severe - Significant threat to life or property
Urgency:
Immediate - Responsive action SHOULD be taken immediately
Certainty:
Likely (p > ~50%)
Category:
General emergency and public safety
Event:
Severe Weather Warning

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