Full Notification

...DAMAGING SURF WITH VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY…

*** High Surf Advisory in effect now from 10 AM PDT today through 6 pm Friday ***

MAIN IMPACTS
• Damaging Surf - Highest impact for south and southeast facing beaches of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, peaking late this afternoon through Wednesday. However high surf will continue through Friday...but slowly diminish beginning Wednesday night. Potential for highest surf seen in recent years for a southerly event...with max sets of 10 to 15 feet likely. The southeast portion of the Santa Barbara south coast will likely see some high surf late this afternoon into Wednesday. South shores of the Central Coast could also see some elevated surf Wednesday into Friday.

• Areas Potentially at Risk for Largest Surf:
• Palos Verdes Peninsula including Long Beach, Cabrillo Beach, and Point Fermin
• Malibu and Zuma Beaches
• Port Hueneme, Point Mugu, Oxnard Shores, and County Line

• Significant Beach Erosion and Structure Damage - Most likely across exposed southeast and south facing shores of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, especially near times of high tide...generally 5 feet and around late evening tonight and Wednesday...and just after midnight Thursday night.
• Very Strong and dangerous rip currents

• Sneaker waves overtopping rocks and jetties and inundating beaches

• Minor coastal flooding across low lying areas...especially near high tide

SYNOPSIS
Hurricane Marie in the eastern Pacific has been downgraded to a Category 2 hurricane this morning. Marie will continue to track to the northwest and weaken as she moves northwest around western side of a strong ridge of high pressure. The main impact from Marie for Southern California will be damaging high surf , well exceeding surf heights seen from Tropical Storm Lowell. Initially, the long period swell energy is expected to have a southeast direction (150-160 degrees) late this morning into early this afternoon, with greater impact late this afternoon through Wednesday across NWS Oxnard’s forecast area. The swell will slowly transition to a more southerly direction.(170 degrees) .

TIMING
Building surf late this morning, peaking late this afternoon into Wednesday. High surf conditions could linger into Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE
High confidence of a dangerous surf event with very strong rip currents, with high confidence in onset of event. Also moderate confidence of coastal flooding .

HISTORICAL EVENTS
Last big hurricanes that reached category 5 status and brought damaging surf and fatalities to Southern California south facing beaches occurred back on August 1st with hurricane Guillermo, and hurricane Linda on Sept. 9th...both in 1997. This was an El Nino year. Most of our southern swell and surf events occur from winter storms in the southern hemisphere. These strong hurricanes are relatively rare for the eastern Pacific.
As an informational tidbit on looking at historical hurricane tracks, you can click on the following link…

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#

NWS will continue to provide email updates if the forecast changes or check our website at www.weather.gov/losangeles

Contact NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard at (805) 988-6619 for 24x7 forecast updates (unlisted).

Monitor NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Facebook and Twitter for additional information.

A large south-southeast swell generated by Hurricane Marie, currently off the coast of Baja, Mexico, will bring a damaging high surf event to parts of the southern California coastline this week. Surf is expected to build rapidly Today, the surf will peak late this afternoon through wednesday, when breakers of 10 to 15 feet will be possible across south and southeast facing beaches of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Areas at particular risk for the very large surf are the beaches exposed south to southeast facing shores, such as Port Hueneme and Point Mugu in Ventura County, and Zuma Beach, the Malibu area, and Long Beach through Palos Verdes in Los Angeles County. The eastern portion of the Santa Barbara South Coast may also see unusually large surf and strong rip currents during this event. Major impacts from this event include the potential for structure damage, significant beach erosion, very strong and dangerous rip currents, waves overtopping jetties, and minor coastal flooding during times of high tides. In addition to strong rip currents, strong long-shore currents are also expected resulting in dangerous swimming conditions. Swimmers and inexperienced surfers are advised to stay out of the water during this time period.